MyBrownCouch

Tweet #3000.

coreypieper — Wed, 16 May 2012 15:37:21 +0000

Instability/wind shear look capable of supporting severe wx by early afternoon in E NY, then push E. Radar sim: rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jslo… #NEwx

— Corey Pieper (@Geostrophic) May 16, 2012

S. Texas Severe Potential Today

coreypieper — Tue, 15 May 2012 14:28:36 +0000

Though not a terribly exciting set up for far South Texas today, the area will have the potential for isolated severe weather by early this afternoon.

Model data indicates the likelihood of the influence of a weak mid-level vorticity lobe advecting into the area by early afternoon (note the area of 20-22 10E-5/s to the NW of Brownsville in the image below).

HRRR 500mb Vorticity Field at 19Z (2pm CDT)

This bit of energy has the capability of driving the development of convection, in an area of at least marginal shear and instability.

=20000 (a severe t-storm threshold) " src="http://mybrowncouch.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Screen-Shot-2012-05-15-at-9.07.17-AM-272x300.png" alt="" width="272" height="300" />

SREF Probability of Craven-Brooks Significant Severe >=20000 (a severe t-storm threshold)

Spider Man Memory

coreypieper — Fri, 04 May 2012 05:02:42 +0000

My memory is terrible, and going back as far as my single digits age is pretty tenuous, but one memory I do have is seeing Spider Man being played on an Atari 2600 by my baby sitter's son when I was likely around 4 or 5 years old (I was born in '78).

They'd kept the console hidden up until the day that I witnessed this amazing event. I was in "morning kindergarten", which meant I normally never saw this son of her's, but this must have been a special afternoon. Here is a video of the game...keeping in mind, how REAL the action on the screen seemed to me then, and still seems in my memory.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hvlQrME5g4&feature=youtube_gdata_player

SHU Lightning Complex VIII

coreypieper — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 18:01:03 +0000

I know the I'm long gone, but here are some photos Koto - the IMET I replaced - sent me.

SHU Lightning Complex VII

coreypieper — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 16:32:13 +0000

As I’m at the mercy of the folks here with the DEMOB unit, I’m stuck with a flight with 2 layovers…one of which is in Houston this afternoon. You know, the Houston that’s about 250miles northeast of where Category 2 Hurricane Dolly is making landfall today. Needless to say, George Bush Intercontinental/Houston Airport (IAH) is experiencing a few delays. According to the FAA:

Traffic destined to this airport is being delayed at its departure point. Check your departure airport to see if your flight may be affected.

...but like I said, I'm at the mercy of the DMOB unit, who has advised me to ride it out - and check for other possibilities at my first layover (San Francisco).

SHU Lightning Complex VI

coreypieper — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 02:02:44 +0000

As I didn't want to use the image from the lightning web site we use ('cause I think that'd be illegal), here's a Google Earth image. The white blob shows where the lightning was today. As expected...off to our northeast.Not very exciting...but right. Super.

SHU Lightning Complex V

coreypieper — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:43:52 +0000

I'm relegated to watching convection to my east, and smoke plumes to my west.

SHU Lightning Complex IV

coreypieper — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 16:11:30 +0000

An upper level trough pushing over the northwest U.S. today will be enough to spawn thunderstorms. Maintaining the stance here that the majority of the moisture and instability would be off to the north and east of our incident. That said, I couldn't completely rule out convection this afternoon and tonight so I mentioned a "less than 10% chance" of thunderstorms over the incident itself. As dry as we are, any storms that form would likely be dry thunderstorms - and/or there will be wind with any cumulus build-ups. So, despite the slim chance of activity - it would be a high impact event - and thus warranted mention.

No one was surprised, as I'd been explaining the situation and the uncertainty in convection chances for a couple of days along with this system as the reason for the daily mention at briefing while still leaving it out of the official forecast.

I leave here on Wednesday.

SHU Lightning Complex III

coreypieper — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 01:23:43 +0000

I thought I'd lend a little frame of reference as to where I am. Here are a couple of Google Earth screen captures. The first, is a wide-angle visual of northern California with both the fire perimeters and the location of camp (the ICP). The second image is a zoomed-in version of the first. In the second, the fires in the complex are labeled. Despite the fact that the complex is only 55% contained according to this morning's situation report - only the Motion fire if of much consequence at this point.

SHU Lightning Complex II

coreypieper — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 01:04:31 +0000

Despite the fact that this is currently the biggest fire in the country, things are a bit slow - and are already kind of winding down. There's a projected containment date of July 25th. So, if that comes to fruition, they likely won't need me much beyond that date.

Here's a picture of Makoto, the IMET I relieved today, giving the afternoon planning weather briefing yesterday:

Here's the area where the morning briefings are held:

...and there's a track at the fairground where we're based:

I know...boring. That's all for now.