Instability/wind shear look capable of supporting severe wx by early afternoon in E NY, then push E. Radar sim: rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jslo… #NEwx
— Corey Pieper (@Geostrophic) May 16, 2012
May 162012
May 152012
Though not a terribly exciting set up for far South Texas today, the area will have the potential for isolated severe weather by early this afternoon.
Model data indicates the likelihood of the influence of a weak mid-level vorticity lobe advecting into the area by early afternoon (note the area of 20-22 10E-5/s to the NW of Brownsville in the image below).
HRRR 500mb Vorticity Field at 19Z (2pm CDT)
This bit of energy has the capability of driving the development of convection, in an area of at least marginal shear and instability.
SREF Probability of Craven-Brooks Significant Severe >=20000 (a severe t-storm threshold)