Sally is HPC’s Frankenstorm…

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Oct 252012
 

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
942 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

VALID 12Z MON OCT 29 2012 – 12Z THU NOV 01 2012

…HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST…

PRELIMINARY UPDATE…

DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION’S
SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO
A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY.
THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO
TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD
SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN,
INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE
LINES OF “FRANKENSTORM”, AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY’S GOTHIC
CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, WHEN ONE PART OF THE NATION IS EXPERIENCING
A VERY ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE DISTURBANCE, THE REMAINDER IS
RELATIVELY CALM. THIS EVENT SHOULD NOT PROVE THE EXCEPTION, WITH A
FAIRLY BENIGN FEED OF PACIFIC AIR INTO MOST OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL STATES. THE FAR WEST, PARTICULAR NORTH OF CALIFORNIA, WILL
HAVE ENOUGH SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE PERIOD WET AND
UNSETTLED.

CISCO

Baseball memory today.

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Aug 032012
 

Marty Brennaman – long-time radio announcer for the Reds – had his head shaved tonight because of a bet he made regarding the Reds’ recently-ended 10 game win streak.

I’ve been thinking of my grandpa a lot lately because of it. I guess, just imagining what he might have said about it. I think he’d get a kick out of it.

Seems a lot of my summer evening memories back in Indiana involved Marty on 700WLW on grandpa’s transistor radio playing somewhere in the background. I can still smell the evening air sometimes…playing whiffle ball in front of the shed.

“Skinny yellow or big red bat?!”

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S. Texas Severe Potential Today

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May 152012
 

Though not a terribly exciting set up for far South Texas today, the area will have the potential for isolated severe weather by early this afternoon.

Model data indicates the likelihood of the influence of a weak mid-level vorticity lobe advecting into the area by early afternoon (note the area of 20-22 10E-5/s to the NW of Brownsville in the image below).

HRRR 500mb Vorticity Field at 19Z (2pm CDT)

This bit of energy has the capability of driving the development of convection, in an area of at least marginal shear and instability.

SREF Probability of Craven-Brooks Significant Severe >=20000 (a severe t-storm threshold)

SHU Lightning Complex VII

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Jul 232008
 

As I’m at the mercy of the folks here with the DEMOB unit, I’m stuck with a flight with 2 layovers…one of which is in Houston this afternoon. You know, the Houston that’s about 250miles northeast of where Category 2 Hurricane Dolly is making landfall today. Needless to say, George Bush Intercontinental/Houston Airport (IAH) is experiencing a few delays. According to the FAA:

Traffic destined to this airport is being delayed at its departure point. Check your departure airport to see if your flight may be affected.

…but like I said, I’m at the mercy of the DMOB unit, who has advised me to ride it out – and check for other possibilities at my first layover (San Francisco).

SHU Lightning Complex VI

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Jul 212008
 

As I didn’t want to use the image from the lightning web site we use (’cause I think that’d be illegal), here’s a Google Earth image. The white blob shows where the lightning was today. As expected…off to our northeast.Not very exciting…but right. Super.

SHU Lightning Complex IV

 IMET, Meteorology  1 Response »
Jul 212008
 

An upper level trough pushing over the northwest U.S. today will be enough to spawn thunderstorms. Maintaining the stance here that the majority of the moisture and instability would be off to the north and east of our incident. That said, I couldn’t completely rule out convection this afternoon and tonight so I mentioned a “less than 10% chance” of thunderstorms over the incident itself. As dry as we are, any storms that form would likely be dry thunderstorms – and/or there will be wind with any cumulus build-ups. So, despite the slim chance of activity – it would be a high impact event – and thus warranted mention.

No one was surprised, as I’d been explaining the situation and the uncertainty in convection chances for a couple of days along with this system as the reason for the daily mention at briefing while still leaving it out of the official forecast.

I leave here on Wednesday.

SHU Lightning Complex III

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Jul 182008
 

I thought I’d lend a little frame of reference as to where I am. Here are a couple of Google Earth screen captures. The first, is a wide-angle visual of northern California with both the fire perimeters and the location of camp (the ICP). The second image is a zoomed-in version of the first. In the second, the fires in the complex are labeled. Despite the fact that the complex is only 55% contained according to this morning’s situation report – only the Motion fire if of much consequence at this point.

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